Climate and Energy Policy – Goals, Solutions and Methods of Analysis

Einārs Cilinskis, Gaidis Klāvs, Jānis Reķis

Climate change is one of the most urgent problems for civilization. The article analyses global, European Union and Latvian climate and energy policy goals – for medium term 2030 as well as long term goals including climate neutrality or net zero emissions. The article analyses the available computer tools for policy analysis including comparison of optimization and simulation models, in particular the methods that have been used in Latvia. Latvian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) 2030 goals as well as pathways to climate neutrality are analyzed based on the results of MARKAL Latvia model developed by the scientists of the Latvian Institute of Physical Energetics. The future modelling system for the policy analysis in Latvia is proposed. The proposal consists of multi model system including – 1) TIMES Latvia energy system model, run with open data principle, 2) general equilibrium economic model of Latvia soft – linked with the TIMES model; 3) analyses of climate investment and finance flows; 4) use of other modelling approaches, including system dynamic models and EnergyPlan model for specific processes. Publicly available simple online tools for policy analysis are needed for educational purposes using global En-Roads climate model as an example. 5) New modelling approaches including big data analysis, AI and machine learning should be examined for future improvements of the modelling system.  Establishment of Latvian Energy Climate expert group as proposed by the NACP is essential for the coordination of research and for improvement of policy proposals.